Bitcoin has been off to a great start in 2024, with the asset breaching the $50,000 ceiling earlier this month, a feat which hasn’t happened since 2021. Yet in an election cycle that is making some investors nervous, and amid an uncertain economic landscape, Bitcoin’s trajectory is also unclear.
The asset, which is up 111% in the past year and 25% in the past month, per CoinGecko, matters to a lot of Americans. As noted in a recent Grayscale survey, approximately half of young voters who own crypto at higher rates than equities are considering 2024 election candidates’ positions on crypto before casting their votes.
Against that background, how could the election cycle further boost Bitcoin’s price?
1. More Crypto-Friendly Regulations
“Predicting Bitcoin’s reaction to the U.S. presidential election is complex, and the outcome could influence Bitcoin, especially if the new administration is not crypto-friendly,†said Anthony Georgiades, general partner at Innovating Capital.
Georgiades noted, however, that Bitcoin’s global reach means its market is less susceptible to U.S. policy shifts and that its use as a hedge against economic instability — particularly in regions with weak banking systems and inflationary fiat currencies — underscores its resilience.
2. Depends on Who Wins
Yet, for some experts, it all boils down to the candidates and their stance on crypto as a whole.
President Joe Biden’s administration signed an executive order to address the risks and harness the potential benefits of digital assets and their underlying technology. Additionally, a recent Grayscale report noted Biden is favorable toward exploring a central bank digital currency (CBDC) and has proposed a 30% tax on the cost of electricity to mine Bitcoin.
As for Donald Trump, he deemed Bitcoin and crypto a “scam†as president in 2019, but has since released a set of digital collectibles on the Bitcoin blockchain, Grayscale noted. Fellow candidate Nikki Haley has not publicly shared her opinion on crypto.
For Thomas L. Hogan, Ph.D., Senior Fellow at the American Institute for Economic Research, a change in leadership would be bullish for Bitcoin.
“The Biden administration, in conjunction with bank regulators and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has been extraordinarily hostile to crypto and digital assets,†said Hogan. “Trump’s comments on Bitcoin have been mixed, but it’s hard to believe that things could be any worse under a Trump administration or basically anyone else.â€
3. Energy Policies
For other experts, factors such as energy policies and the price of electricity could also bolster or hinder the asset’s price.
“Alterations in energy policies advocated by presidential candidates have the potential to directly impact electricity costs, thus affecting the profitability of Bitcoin mining operations and subsequently shaping market dynamics,†said Kerel Verwaerde, the CMO of Cryptology.com.
4. Bitcoin’s Trajectory May Not Correlate to the Election Cycle
“Bitcoin doesn’t have a President, nor need a President. That’s its greatest strength,†said Evander Smart, founder of Bitcoin University.
Smart stated that Bitcoin is a non-correlated asset, which doesn’t move with the stock or bond market. Instead, Bitcoin moves based on supply-and-demand, the rate of inflation, Wall Street investment in the Spot ETFs, the Bitcoin halving event and the overall economic outlook — the President has little to no real hand in most of these factors.
“Bitcoin is on a ‘Supercycle’ trajectory, which would remove a regularly scheduled major market correction in 2026,†Smart said. “Whether Biden, or Trump, is president, Bitcoin will not make moves for political reasons anytime soon. Unless a new policy comes that radically changes the overall economic system, like moving towards a CBDC, Bitcoin will continue growing and empowering its owners into a bright economic future.â€
5. Additional Catalysts Could Boost Bitcoin’s Price
Bbeyond the election cycle, other factors unrelated to politics — such as those mentioned by Smart — might affect Bitcoin’s price and may impact it more than the November outcome.
The upcoming Bitcoin halving event occurring just before the election is also key. As Innovating Capital’s Georgiades explained, historically, halvings have led to price appreciation, which suggests that Bitcoin’s value may rise due to its own economic mechanisms regardless of the election’s outcome.
“In summary, while the U.S. election introduces uncertainty, Bitcoin’s global nature, coupled with significant events like the halving, suggest its trajectory will be shaped by a mix of internal and external factors, beyond just U.S. politics,†he said.
“Regardless of who wins this election, I feel that Bitcoin is on such solid ground that the future can only be positive,†said Daniel C. McCabe, CEO, Flexa.
Instead, McCabe turned the issue on its head: how will Bitcoin impact the election?
“If there were a candidate who could show a basic understanding of Bitcoin and digital assets, including the potential benefits, then that candidate could find millions of additional votes, including in swing states,†he suggested.
